Deutsche Bank Economists Expect Rate Cuts in the USA in 2024

The Federal Reserve will cut rates more aggressively than markets are currently pricing in as a mild U.S. recession arrives in the first half of next year, economists at Deutsche Bank projected on Monday.

In an outlook report, the Deutsche Bank economists projected 175 basis points in rate cuts in 2024.

Deutsche Bank expects two quarters of negative economic growth in the first half of 2024, which leads to a “pretty sharp rise” in the unemployment rate to 4.6% by the middle of next year from 3.9% now.

At the same time, the bank expects that the economic weakness “eases inflationary pressures”.

In the report released on Monday, the bank said it expected a “mild recession” in the first half of 2024.

Deutsche Bank expects an initial cut of 50 basis points at the Fed’s June 2024 meeting, followed by 125 bps of additional cuts over the rest of the year.

Deutsche Bank strategists forecast the S&P 500 index to end next year 12% higher and  surge to a record 5,100 point.